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Overview of Our Energy Modeling Problem

We live in a world with limits, yet our economy needs growth. How can we expect this scenario to play out? My view is that this problem will play out as a fairly near-term financial problem, with low oil prices leading to a fall in oil production. But not everyone comes to this conclusion. What were...
» Written by Gail Tverberg on Friday, April 24, 2015

Oil price, Tullow, Sound, Madagascar Oil, Ithaca, Providence, And finally...

Oil price The week is ending strongly for the oil price as the conference week bulls speak more loudly or impressively than the bears. Actually, part of the rise was for geopolitical reasons, the cease fire in the Yemen announced on Tuesday was shattered well and truly yesterday with over 20 air st...
» Written by Malcolm Graham-Wood on Friday, April 24, 2015

Being open to oil and gas exploration on the Isle of Wight

The news that UK Oil and Gas Investments believe there are something like 116.5 million barrels of 'drill ready' oil has led to wildly inaccurate claims of fracking and poisoned groundwater, with little being said about what this kind of activity might actually mean to the Isle of Wight. Firstly, t...
» Written by Tracey Dancy on Friday, April 24, 2015

Rig Count Update March / April 2015

The global rig count statistics published by Baker Hughes provide a crucial industry activity indicator and some of the most up to date industry statistics available. This is a short report updating international statistics to March 2015 and US statistics to 10 April 2015. Figure 1 The Middle East...
» Written by Euan Mearns on Thursday, April 23, 2015


Palantir Forward Curve - 2015 April

Global Economy Crude oil prices gradually rose again this past month. On April 13, 2015, the WTI front month futures price settled at $51.91/bbl which was slightly higher than March's average price of $47.83/bbl and the February average of $50.60/bbl. The European Brent front month futures price se...
» Written by Bowen Gao on Thursday, April 23, 2015

Oil price, Cape, Victoria Oil & Gas, Sefton Resources, Trap Oil, Sundry, And finally...

Oil price Lets get the facts out of the way first, last night's EIA inventory figures showed yet another build of crude oil stocks, this time by 5.3m barrels against consensus of 2.7m. This number is the highest since 1982 and the monthly figure is the highest since 1930. The interesting thing abou...
» Written by Malcolm Graham-Wood on Thursday, April 23, 2015

How did that prediction work out, Nostradamus?

They say never make predictions, especially about the future; and by 'they' I mean just about everyone, the quote is variously attributed to Yogi Berra, Albert Einstein and Dan Qualye, amongst others. Foolishly I ignored that advice and I did make a prediction, but I did have a little edge, I paid ...
» Written by Stephen A. Brown on Thursday, April 23, 2015

Rising US Oil Supply And How Innovation Never Stands Still

Necessityis the mother of new inventions, and also of innovations that make improvements on old inventions. When, for example, oil and gas prices were sky-high in the US, this prompted the late and great George Mitchell to persist with research that led to modern hydraulic fracturing techniques. N...
» Written by John Richardson on Wednesday, April 22, 2015

Oil price, Nabors, Thalassa, And finally...

Oil price It's a short blog today as news is a bit thin on the ground and I am off to TipTV and then meeting companies. The oil price has weakened slightly although the differential has narrowed, this morning Brent is down another 50 cents while WTI, having expired overnight has gained about the s...
» Written by Malcolm Graham-Wood on Wednesday, April 22, 2015

Oil price, Chariot, Egdon, And finally...

Oil price Just how quiet it was in the market yesterday is reflected in the rare occurrence of a n/c in the Brent price. What might we see coming up in the crude market? Well its the expiry of the May WTI contract today which might show some rolling over and of course we have the API inventory stat...
» Written by Malcolm Graham-Wood on Tuesday, April 21, 2015

OPEC hit as 'peak oil demand' arrives and US imports fall

Oil market traders have been having fun in recent weeks, as they have managed to create guaranteed price movements every week: US oil inventory data is published on Tuesday and Wednesday This gives traders the chance to push prices lower as the inventories continue to rise US oil rig data is publis...
» Written by Paul Hodges on Tuesday, April 21, 2015

Oil price, Petrofac, Halliburton, Kurdistan/Genel, Victoria Oil & Gas, And finally...

Oil price The oil price ended the week up, resuming the positive trend and keeping the bulls happy. Whilst I wouldnt want to rain on anyone's parade I feel that there will be some testing of the lower levels in the next few months. In the meantime the signs are quite positive, as I mentioned last w...
» Written by Malcolm Graham-Wood on Monday, April 20, 2015

Have oil markets had enough of low prices?

Source: US EIA There is an interesting convergence in views by the global agencies that track oil supply and demand suggesting that US oil production is finally trending down in two of the biggest onshore tight oil plays at Bakken and Eagle Ford while global oil demand seems to be creeping up. The...
» Written by Gary Hunt on Monday, April 20, 2015

What Iranian Supply Overhang?

Sometimes I really wonder how naïve people are. Everyone is expecting oil to flood onto the market if the US agrees a deal on the Iranian nuclear programme and eases sanctions on Iran. I read that Iran is storing 30 million barrels of oil at sea as sanctions keep a lid on sales. I am quite sur...
» Written by Stephen A. Brown on Monday, April 20, 2015

Oil price, Schlumberger, Northern Petroleum, Plexus, Sound Oil, And finally...

Oil price With the expiry of the May Brent contract on Wednesday the last 48 hours has seen quite a swing in prices, indeed at one stage yesterday it nearly reached $65 having been below $58 on Tuesday. Bulls were on the Twitter machine yesterday asking if I had changed my view that the oil price w...
» Written by Malcolm Graham-Wood on Friday, April 17, 2015

Hedging Helps Canadian Oil & Gas Companies in Low Price Climate

Canadian oil and gas companies that hedged their oil production before the global oil price crash will be very relieved they did so. This CanOils study of 45 TSX-listed companies' Q4 2014 results (see note 1) shows that many Canadian companies made large realized hedging gains as the oil price fell ...
» Written by Mark Young on Thursday, April 16, 2015

Oil price, Northern Petroleum, And finally...

Oil price A swift blog this morning as I am out and about with companies and doing some work with the BBC on the Falklands. The oil price certainly had a fair wind yesterday and those traders I mentioned who wanted Brent to go out with a bang and close above $59 were more than happy. Why did it bo...
» Written by Malcolm Graham-Wood on Thursday, April 16, 2015

Putting the Real Story of Energy and the Economy Together

What is the real story of energy and the economy? We hear two predominant energy stories. One is the story economists tell: The economy can grow forever; energy shortages will have no impact on the economy. We can simply substitute other forms of energy, or do without. Another version of the energy...
» Written by Gail Tverberg on Wednesday, April 15, 2015

Oil price, Hunting, Europa Oil & Gas, Sundry-Tullow/Kurdistan?- And finally...

Oil price Onwards and upwards very gently as the oil price ticks up modestly for the fifth day in a row, May Brent expires today so traders would like it to finish well, above $59 would be helpful. Part of the resilience is down to the weak dollar but a shed-load of stats are mainly bearish if one ...
» Written by Malcolm Graham-Wood on Wednesday, April 15, 2015
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