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Opinion & Commentary

Oil price, Range Resources, Velocys, Sundry-Exxon-Shell-Gulf Keystone, And finally...

Friday, October 31, 2014

Oil price Oil prices came off yesterday after what has been a pretty steady week by recent standards. The US GDP figures were a touch better than expected and combined with the Fed's chatter the day before produced a rise in the dollar which never helps oil. With the price of Brent being about the same as the beginning of the week traders have reported that the market has felt a little better this week but... Early estimates of October Opec production are coming in and if they are to be believed it was another big month. I have so far had a number of 30.9m b/d which would be a 14 month high and up on September's ... Read more

Nanotechnology hits the oilpatch

Friday, October 31, 2014

Dropping energy prices—for both oil and natural gas—has investors and analysts checking to see what the break-even price is for oil production in each play in North America. This is a moving target, and it’s going lower all the time. And I’m going to tell you The Next Phase of increasing profitability—i.e. lower break-even costs—for the industry. Now, the #1 reason is for lower break-even costs is better fracking techniques. The industry has not yet found the upper limits of how much oil or gas they can get out from under a square mile patch of land. Improvements or increased efficie... Read more

Oil price, Shell, Cairn, Gulf Keystone, Sundry-Eni-Afren-NTOG- And finally...

Thursday, October 30, 2014

Oil price Another small rally yesterday albeit slightly lost this morning on the back of a strong dollar. Traders tell me that the feel of the market stayed quite good yesterday and rallied again after the EIA stats which showed a build of 2.1m barrels, less than the 3.4m consensus. The FOMC was exactly as expected and today sees the US GDP figures which we assume they will have taken into account. Opec Secretary General Abdalla El-Badri spoke at a conference in London yesterday and his words were a classic example of how to try and talk your own book. Whilst telling the market not to panic about crude prices and that th... Read more

Oil price, Premier, Alkane Energy, Petrofac, Plexus, VOG, Sundry-Total-Statoil-Anadarko-Shell, And finally...

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Oil price The oil price has definitely settled down a little with some clarity creeping back into the market but it is by no means certain to bounce from here. Yesterday was encouraging as Brent closed a dollar off the bottom and near its high for the day and today both WTI and Brent are up around 80 cents. The API inventory stats come out after the market has closed so the stock build of 3.2m barrels, roughly in-line with expectations for once didn’t disappoint. For Brent every little counts and the next level to try and reach is $87.35, lets see what happens with the EIA numbers tonight, a positive number will giv... Read more

Lithuanian LNG - The latest European move away from Gazprom and Russia

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Lithuania has historically imported its gas from Russia and Gazprom. This is about to change however, with the country’s first LNG Cargo being received at its brand new floating terminal. Analysis by Evaluate Energy shows that, by itself, the terminal represents just a small amount of gas that Gazprom needs to find a new market for, but Lithuania’s new found potential independence does form part of a major overall change in the European gas market. This change in Europe means Gazprom will have to adapt in order to remain a major player and to make sure Russia’s new Asian-focused enterprises represent a tr... Read more

Oil price, BP, BG, Harvey Nash, And finally...

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Oil price Little change yesterday, except maybe that the differential, which had got down to as low as $1.77 and bounced to over $5 crept back to $4.83. The physical market is directionless, traders telling me that buyers remain off the market trading only what they need, waiting for something to happen. Will that thing be the Fed we ask? With the meeting starting today, tomorrows announcement will likely end QE but keep interest rates down but bear in mind that a 25% fall in the oil price, which is what we have had in less than two quarters is like having a QE delivery but from the oil producers, they are getting it in ... Read more

Eight pieces of our oil price predicament

Friday, October 24, 2014

A person might think that oil prices would be fairly stable. Prices would set themselves at a level that would be high enough for the majority of producers, so that in total producers would provide enough–but not too much–oil for the world economy. The prices would be fairly affordable for consumers. And economies around the world would grow robustly with these oil supplies, plus other energy supplies. Unfortunately, it doesn’t seem to work that way recently. Let me explain at least a few of the issues involved. 1. Oil prices are set by our networked economy. As I have explained previously, we have a ne... Read more

Oil price, BP/Chevron, Ophir and finally...

Friday, October 24, 2014

Oil price Last week I named it 'short covering Friday as for the last few weeks this day has seen bears closing short positions ahead of the weekend, but today is slightly different. Last Friday we had just bounced off the low of the 50% retracement of the 5 year high and now the market appears to have settled down at least a touch. Despite the slightly odd EIA stats, which i believe are down to unexpected refinery activity, oil rallied again last night. The reason was that it seems that Saudi Arabia output in September fell by 328/- b/d to only 9.36m b/d, a token fall you might agree but a fall nevertheless. This is... Read more

Give us a break...

Thursday, October 23, 2014

I see that Oil & gas UK has been talking again about the need for George Osborne to ‘put his money where his mouth is’ (I paraphrase!) and change the fiscal terms operative in the UKCS. This of course would be very welcome. BUT, what it doesn’t do is get the COSTS of doing business offshore in the UKCS (and Norway, for that matter) down; and exponentiating costs are a key reason that development projects are being put on hold or at best delayed. Now Oil & Gas UK has around 250 full members and getting all of these singing from the same hymn sheet is something they should be congratulated on. Again. An... Read more

Oil price, Tullow, Chariot, FOGL, Sundry-Weatherford-Core Labs-BP-Total-Range-Northern Pet-Jupiter-Tangiers, and finally...

Thursday, October 23, 2014

Oil price Ok, so we whispered it a little too loudly and the oil price came off again last night after a poor set of inventory stats. These came in from the EIA as a 7.1m build which was a little more than double the consensus and much higher than the API number which is what spooked the market. US domestic production was marginally up whilst demand faltered, US refineries are still not back from seasonal maintenance but will be soon. With only a week to go in October, November will change things so inventory data will be important, as will the weather. This may seem rather spurious but make a difference, particularly thi... Read more

Oil price, Nabors, Shell, Amerisur, Nostra Terra, Sundry and finally...

Wednesday, October 22, 2014

Oil price Whisper it very quietly... but we might just have seen the bottom for the oil price, at least for the time being. Now this is no cause for breaking out the champagne nor does it signify a meaningful rally but there are a couple of small signs that the major part of the fall has now happened. I mentioned last Thursday that we were at a very important technical level for the oil price, with Brent flirting with $82.30 which is the 50% retracement from the five year high, that day with world markets in a bad state, Brent got very close but bounced at $82.60, voilá. Today we are at $86.62 after the recent mode... Read more

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Opinions & Commentary

Oil decline: Price makes the story

by Kurt Cobb

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