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Project Manager - Leading Construction Company - Perth

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Opinion & Commentary

Should we be in the Arctic?

Wednesday, October 1, 2014

The sanctions-driven freeze on US and European involvement in the Russian Arctic gives us time to consider a fundamental question: Should we be exploring in the Arctic at all? On the one hand, as an explorer I am aware of, even excited by, USGS notions that the Arctic may contain say 100 bn boe waiting to be discovered. Some would say there’s more even than that. On the other hand, there are (at least) three notions we should consider: As I understand it, the ExxonMobil/Rosneft budget for drilling just two exploration wells in the Kara Sea was ~$700m. Does this mean that the discovery and adequate appraisal of a ... Read more

Oil price, Ineos/Fraccing, Exxon/Rosneft, Velocys, Sundry-Shell/BP-Nighthawk-Union Jack-B&S and finally...

Monday, September 29, 2014

Oil price This morning the oil price is down again, not much but around 70 cents which takes Brent nearer the recent lows, note that the differential is $3.46 at the bottom end of its range. WTI outperformance is partly due to the US GDP numbers last week but also the strength of the greenback and also the crude draw last week which caught the market by surprise. Probably the biggest loser amongst the oil producing stakes when prices fall is Iran, which despite being under sanctions has a very high break even rate at the moment. Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh spoke on Friday asking Opec to 'work together' to ... Read more

Big natgas exports to Mexico in 2015 is a pipe dream

Monday, September 29, 2014

Natural gas bulls point to fast increasing exports of cheap US natgas to Mexico to bolster their thesis. Even I was guilty of this last year, when I ran a two part series on this in July 2013.But now I’ve learned this is simply not going to happen—at least until mid-2016, simply because the Mexican side of the big pipeline push is not ready for Big Exports until 2016. I found it odd that I hadn’t heard much recently about Net Midstream’s huge 2.1 bcf/d (billion cubic feet per day) natural gas pipeline from Texas into Mexico—which is supposed to start December 2014. A google search showed no n... Read more

Oil price, Mexico, Independent, Sundry - BP-San Leon-Alkane- And finally...

Friday, September 26, 2014

Oil price A quiet day in the oil markets with little further data and in the US a touch of the jitters, as indifferent durable goods orders and an increase in jobless claims panicked Wall Strasa. Today the UK Parliament votes on whether to approve joining the international strike force against IS, it should get through and get DC 'purring'. Independent Oil & Gas I am keeping a watching eye on IOG which has some interesting potential longer term. I have met with the management and they seem pretty switched on and a good business model. Today they have announced that they have an MOU with Ping Petroleum for the jo... Read more

99 Red Balloons...

Friday, September 26, 2014

...was the title of an anti-nuclear protest song by the German singer Nena and her group of the same name, released in German in 1983 and in English in 1984. It came into my head just this week when I read this review of the work of a well-known Aberdonian academic predicting “a potential North Sea bonus of 99 new discoveries in the next 30 years” - this based on detailed financial modelling – I think that’s Monte Carlo simulation by the way. It also jogged my memory of a day about 4 years ago when I attended a small oil & gas conference in Aberdeen (at the soon-to-be-no-more Pitfodels Hotel) and w... Read more

Oil price, Parkmead, Hurricane, NTOG, Tangiers, Sundry- Madagascar-Azonto and finally...

Wednesday, September 24, 2014

Oil price Yesterdays movements were modest with traders telling me that the market was quiet, WTI went better as the API stats showed a substantial crude draw of 6.5m barrels but as oft repeated here, September can be a funny month. Refiners will start to up their runs next month and we shall see what happens then, with Saudi sales to their Far East customers apparently flagging and going to discount it looks like some crude will come off the market one way or another and if that happens the price might pick up, a bit... At the Labour party conference Milipede spoke for over an hour without mentioning the economy or the ... Read more

Oil price, Exxon, Siemens, Chariot, Faroe, Velocys and finally...

Monday, September 22, 2014

Oil price All sorts of influences on the oil price at the moment and in a number of different directions. On the demand side, tomorrows manufacturing numbers from China will be closely watched, the EU continues to look distinctly groggy and the G20 meeting in Sydney yesterday described those economies as being in 'stagnation', super Mario speaks later today. On the supply side most numbers point to plenty of crude around but Libya is still around 150/- b/d off its recent peak at about 710/- b/d. The technical side of things is looking slightly better with half decent support being established at around these leve... Read more

Low oil prices: Sign of a debt bubble collapse, leading to the end of oil supply?

Monday, September 22, 2014

Oil and other commodity prices have recently been dropping. Is this good news, or bad? Figure 1. Trend in Commodity Prices since January 2011. Brent spot oil price from EIA; Australian Coal from World Bank Prink Sheet; Food from UN’s FAO. I would argue that falling commodity prices are bad news. It likely means that the debt bubble which has been holding up the world economy for a very long–since World War II, at least–is failing to expand sufficiently. If the debt bubble collapses, we will be in huge difficulty. Many people have the impression that falling oil prices mean that the cost of production ... Read more

Rosneft and Gazprom break into Brazil

Thursday, September 18, 2014

During the third quarter of 2014, both Rosneft and Gazprom have made notable advances into the Brazilian oil and gas sector. As of mid-July 2014, the Brazilian National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Biofuels authorized the sale of an additional 6 percent of HRT O&G to Russia’s Rosneft. Early-September, Gazprom announced their intention to purchase shares in several of Brazil’s offshore fields. After Rosneft’s acquisition of TNK-BP, they petitioned the company in March to increase their ownership. Rosneft now has a controlling 51 percent interest in HRT O&G that owns the Solimoes Onshore Project ... Read more

For a few trillion barrels more

Thursday, September 18, 2014

Today, Scotland will vote on the following question: Should Scotland be an independent country? Answer YES and the vote is for independence, answer NO and the vote is to stay with The United Kingdom. Energy has not figured at the top of the debating issues that have been dominated by currency union, the economy and disaffection with Westminster. The future of North Sea oil has been on the second tier but periodically gets thrust into the limelight, normally on the back of sensational headlines about the future. Part of the current reality is that Aberdeen is in the early stage of cyclical recession, brought about by decl... Read more

Oil price, Scotland, Caza and finally...

Thursday, September 18, 2014

Oil price The oil price remains relatively week but looks to be trying to form a bit of a base around here, after the Fed stated yesterday that 'accommodative interest rates would remain for a considerable time' the greenback strengthened again... The EIA stats mirrored those of the API, analysts were completely wrong getting both the sign and the size incorrect, the build was 3.7m barrels vs a guess of a draw of 1.6m barrels. Nobody has told the little darlings that refinery runs decline in September, Wall Street banks employing them should insist they read the blog before forecasting stuff they don't know! ... Read more

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Opinions & Commentary

Oil price, Ophir, Ithaca and sundry- FOGL-Thalassa- And finally...

by Malcolm Graham-Wood

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