Opinion & Commentary
Help needed - to figure out the EU's Energy Strategy!
Thursday, August 28, 2014
I quite like to try the puzzles that you find in newspapers, often on the back pages – the Sudoku ones for example that are labelled either “Easy”, “Hard”, “Fiendish” or “Super Fiendish”. Here’s something that is “Beyond Super Fiendish” – trying to figure out what the EU’s energy Strategy is! Why don’t you try? In my effort to be helpful, here is the link you need to get started: http://ec.europa.eu/policies/energy_natural_resources_en.htm And to give your mulling over, your detective work, some context, let’s stop and consi... Read more
North Sea Oil and Scottish Independence: where does the truth lie?
Thursday, August 28, 2014
How much oil and gas is left in the North Sea? 16 billion barrels oil equivalent (boe) according to Sir Ian Wood or 24 billion boe according to Oil and Gas UK? The correct answer for official proved+probable reserves is between 8 and 9 billion boe, a figure that both DECC and Oil and Gas UK agree on. With over 9 different classes of reserves, this debate is sterile and this is not the correct question to ask. How wealthy will oil make Scotland? In 2013, the direct tax take from oil and gas production for the whole of the UK was £4.67 billion and falling. This compares with annual spending of the Scottish governmen... Read more
Oil price, Cape, Caza, Petrofac, Plexus plus sundry follow up etc, And finally...
Wednesday, August 27, 2014
Oil price Brent crude broke upwards through $103 last night but couldn't hold it and fell back to finish lower at $102.50. Brent is seriously range bound and I remain bearish for the time being with outside influences creating downward pressure. This will not last forever though and one should be considering when to start considering buying the contract again. WTI bounced a touch as the API inventory stats revealed a further draw, this time of 1.3m barrels, EIA numbers tonight may keep that slightly more buoyant feeling going. Cape Cape have produced interims this morning and the first half was in line with expectat... Read more
US companies benefit from move from natural gas to oil production
Tuesday, August 26, 2014
The last few years have seen many of the oil and gas companies in the United States change their strategy away from natural gas and focus on oil producing assets due to low gas prices. Despite the steady and gradual recovery in the Henry Hub benchmark gas price in the US since the middle of 2012, second quarter data from a group of US oil and gas producers in the Evaluate Energy database shows that this move towards oil production has still been very worthwhile. Source: Evaluate Energy - The Henry Hub gas price shows a gradual increase on average from Q2 2012 ($2.29/mcf) to Q2 2014 ($4.60/mcf) while the WTI oil price has... Read more
Update on US natural gas, coal, nuclear, and renewables
Tuesday, August 26, 2014
On August 6, I wrote a post called Making Sense of the US Oil Story, in which I looked at US oil. In this post, I would like to look at other sources of US energy. Of course, the energy source we hear most about is natural gas. We continue to be a net natural gasimporter, even as our own production rises. Figure 1. US natural gas production and consumption, based on EIA data. US natural gas production leveled off in 2013, because of the low level of US natural gas prices. In 2013, there was growth in gas production in Pennsylvania in the Marcellus, but many other states, including Texas, saw decreases in production. In ... Read more
Oil price, Sundry round up, And finally...
Friday, August 22, 2014
Oil price As one might expect on the day before the August Bank Holiday weekend company news is a bit thin on the ground. I have just come back from a couple of days in Aberdeen (more later) where business is still booming. One interesting point came out whilst I was up there and that was in comments made by oil legend Sir Iain Wood, in an interview with an industry paper he confounded the hopes of the Yes campaign on future potential of 'Scotland's oil'. As mentioned in this blog earlier in the week when I looked at the findings of the N-56 group, Sir Iain also said that there was nothing like the amount of o... Read more
Yet another suspect Keystone 'study' hits the stage
Thursday, August 21, 2014
In the future, honest historians (if such a thing still exists in the future) will look back on the green movement's demonization of the Keystone XL Pipeline as perhaps the single most dishonest advocacy campaign in American history. Never has such a mass quantity of misinformation and outright lies been distributed by activists and parroted by clueless and/or sympathetic media outlets about a single inanimate object as has been directed at this pipeline project. The latest example comes from U.S.-based researchers affiliated with the Stockholm Environment Institute. The report absurdly claim that increased carbon emi... Read more
Deep Water Fields - the end or the end of the beginning?
Thursday, August 21, 2014
For the last 20 years - or much longer if you rightly include the Gulf of Mexico and Brazil - the discovery of Deep Water Fields has been the target of much exploration spend and even more development Capex, and as a result production from them now represents a significant slice of global non-Opec production. But today it's possible to take a gloomy view: Discoveries appear to be drying up, with several high profile dry holes in the South Atlantic for example: perhaps we have simply run out of prime geology? The cost of deep water exploration and appraisal wells has exponentiated: let's face it, economics goes ... Read more
Oil price, Chariot, Sundry + catch up, And finally...
Wednesday, August 20, 2014
Oil price The Brent/WTI differential you may have noticed, is swinging around a lot at the moment, yesterday it was down to Brent rallying and WTI weaker ahead of the expiry today. Brent actually looked technically very dodgy during the day, traders are watching the $101.40 support very carefully and at one stage it touched $101.07 but bounced off it and at the moment we are at last nights close levels. WTI looks a little better after the API inventory stats showed a draw of 1.4m barrels, slightly higher than forecasts. Underlying of course things do remain bearish as I have been suggesting for some time (see the IG vide... Read more
The Clair Oilfield - distilling facts from fiction
Tuesday, August 19, 2014
In an email last week: Recently a number of friends of mine have been telling me that the largest oil field in the world has been discovered encompassing BP Clair Ridge. They further tell me that the UK government has ordered BP to stay quiet about this until after the independence referendum. Now this seems unlikely to me to say the least but I wonder if you have any comment. I agreed to write a short post setting out the facts as I understand them. I do not own any shares in BP, but many years ago I was involved in geochemical and mineralogical characterisation of the reservoir that led to the development of techniques... Read more
Two myths associated with U.S. shale oil
Monday, August 18, 2014
Myth Number 1: The U.S. is approaching energy independence. There is no doubt we are in the midst of a shale oil revolution. But the growth of production has led to reporting that might charitably be described as overly optimistic. In fact, the Wall Street Journal reported last week, in an article entitled Democrats Warming to the Energy Industry, “Since March 2008, oil production has increased 58% and natural-gas output has risen 21%, making the U.S. the world’s largest producer of both fuels, according to federal and international agency statistics.” I don’t know which federal statistics tha... Read more
More Opinion & Commentary
Write for us!